Serbia Power Market
BZN|RS · Day-Ahead Prices · 2019–2060
2026 YTD to Mar 17
Full Scenario Comparison — 2019 to 2060
ENTSO-E Actuals · Tier 1A (Q2/2023) · Tier 1B (Jan/2024) · HowerValuations Central Forecast
Near-Term Focus — 2019 to 2035
Crisis context + Post-crisis normalisation
2026 YTD Monthly Actuals
Jan (complete) · Feb (complete) · Mar (partial to 12 Mar)
Historical Day-Ahead Prices
BZN|RS · ENTSO-E · 2019–2026 YTD · EUR/MWh Nominal
Monthly Heatmap
Monthly Price Heatmap — EUR/MWh Nominal
Annual Statistics
Price Forecast 2026–2060
HowerValuations Central · Low · High · EUR/MWh Nominal · CBAM adjusted
Forecast Scenarios 2026–2060
Central / Low (–35%) / High (+40%) · Nominal EUR/MWh · CBAM drag embedded
Full Annual Table
Forecast Accuracy
Tier 1A (Q2/2023) & Tier 1B (Jan/2024) vs ENTSO-E Actuals
Tier 1A (Q2/2023) vs 2024 Actual
−27.8%
Forecast: 140.9 EUR/MWh · Actual: 101.8 EUR/MWh
Tier 1B (Jan/2024) vs 2024 Actual
−23.4%
Forecast: 132.9 EUR/MWh · Actual: 101.8 EUR/MWh
Tier 1A (Q2/2023) vs 2025 Actual
−22.0%
Forecast: 138.3 EUR/MWh · Actual: 107.9 EUR/MWh
Tier 1B (Jan/2024) vs 2025 Actual
−22.4%
Forecast: 139.0 EUR/MWh · Actual: 107.9 EUR/MWh
Forecast vs Actual — 2023 to 2026 YTD
All figures nominal EUR/MWh
Root Cause Decomposition
① Anchored to Crisis Prices
Tier 1A wrote Q2/2023 while H1 2023 Serbia prices averaged ~140 EUR/MWh. Both models extrapolated from crisis inertia rather than a clean equilibrium. Pre-crisis baseline (2019–2020): 44.8 EUR/MWh.
② Gas Price Overestimate (dominant)
Tier 1A assumed TTF gas at 52.2 EUR/MWh (real 2022) for 2024. Actual TTF ~32.5 EUR/MWh real. Sensitivity: 0.40 EUR/MWh power per EUR/MWh gas → explains ~8 EUR/MWh of overestimate.
③ Coal Overestimate
Tier 1A assumed ARA coal at 122.7 USD/t (real 2022). Actual ~97 USD/t real. Coal sensitivity: 0.32 EUR/MWh power per USD/t → explains ~8 EUR/MWh additional overestimate.
④ EU ETS Not Applied to Serbia
Both forecasters assumed Serbia joins EU ETS from 2025–2026 at 85–92 EUR/tCO₂ with growing pass-through. Serbia is not in EU ETS. This would have added 30+ EUR/MWh if real. Now recast as CBAM mechanism from 2026.
⑤ Structural Residual (~12–18%)
After all commodity corrections: remaining gap reflects faster Balkan RE deployment (Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria wind/solar), softer industrial demand growth, and improved interconnection reducing Serbia's price isolation.
⑥ 2026 Early Signal
Jan 2026: 118.1 EUR/MWh (solid). Feb 2026: 68.6 EUR/MWh (collapse — warm winter, high wind). YTD avg 94.2 EUR/MWh → still below both original 2026 forecasts (130–133).
CBAM Analysis
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism · In effect from 1 January 2026
Serbia Grid Emission Factor
0.78 tCO₂/MWh
Lignite dominant (~72% thermal) · One of EU's highest
CBAM Cost 2026 — Conventional Export
53 EUR/MWh
0.78 tCO₂ × 68 EUR/t ETS · Blocks conventional exports
CBAM Cost — Certified RE / Hydro
0 EUR/MWh
Zero emission factor = zero CBAM · +53 EUR/MWh premium vs conventional
CBAM Cost Trajectory 2026–2060
Conventional Serbian export · EUR/MWh · EF declines as grid decarbonises
EU ETS Price Path vs Serbia Grid EF
ETS EUR/tCO₂ (left) · Grid Emission Factor tCO₂/MWh (right)
Export Economics 2026
Conventional (Lignite) Export
Breakeven EU Export Price
~147 EUR/MWh
Serbian DA (94) + CBAM cost (53) = 147 minimum needed
Certified RE / Hydro (GOC) Export
RE Export Premium vs Conventional
+53 EUR/MWh
Zero CBAM · Captures full EU DA price without deduction
CBAM Cost & RE Premium by Year
Hydro Capture Rate
Monthly Generation Profile vs Seasonal Price Pattern · BZN|RS
Generation Profile vs Seasonal Price Index
Monthly weight % (blue) vs seasonal price index vs baseload (amber)
Annual Capture Rate — 2019 to 2025
Hydro capture price ÷ annual baseload average
Spring Paradox
The Spring Paradox
Mar + Apr + May = 42.8% of annual hydro generation but seasonal prices average only 87.5 EUR/MWh (−13% vs baseload) in post-crisis conditions. Snow-melt drives high output exactly when Balkan/SE European prices are seasonally weakest.
Winter months (Jan+Feb+Nov+Dec) = only 33.7% of generation at 119.8 EUR/MWh (+19% vs baseload). The winter premium partially rescues the capture rate.
Winter months (Jan+Feb+Nov+Dec) = only 33.7% of generation at 119.8 EUR/MWh (+19% vs baseload). The winter premium partially rescues the capture rate.
Annual Capture Summary
Forward Capture Price + CBAM GOC Premium
Commodity Price Drivers
Gas · Coal · Oil · EU ETS · Historical Actuals vs Tier 1A Assumptions
TTF Gas, ARA Coal, EU ETS — Nominal Actuals 2019–2025
TTF EUR/MWh (left axis) · ARA Coal USD/t and EU ETS EUR/tCO₂ (right axis)
Tier 1A Assumptions vs Actuals
Methodology
Data Sources · Revision Approach · Key Assumptions
Data Sources
ENTSO-E Transparency Platform — Day-ahead prices BZN|RS (Serbia). 2019–2022: hourly; 2023–2026: 15-minute intervals.
Tier 1A (Q2/2023) — Power price projections, wind capture, commodity assumptions. Prepared for WF1. Real 2022 EUR/MWh.
Tier 1B (Jan/2024) — Serbia Power & Renewables Market Forecast. Real 2022 EUR/MWh.
ICE / EEX — Commodity market data for gas, coal, oil, ETS (approximate actuals).
Tier 1A (Q2/2023) — Power price projections, wind capture, commodity assumptions. Prepared for WF1. Real 2022 EUR/MWh.
Tier 1B (Jan/2024) — Serbia Power & Renewables Market Forecast. Real 2022 EUR/MWh.
ICE / EEX — Commodity market data for gas, coal, oil, ETS (approximate actuals).
Revision Methodology
Step 1: Gas correction — Tier 1A overestimated 2024 TTF by 38% (real). Sensitivity: 0.40 EUR/MWh power per EUR/MWh gas. Correction tapers by 2032.
Step 2: Coal correction — Tier 1A overestimated 2024 ARA by 21% (real). Sensitivity: 0.32 EUR/MWh power per USD/t. Tapers toward Tier 1A long-run.
Step 3: ETS/CBAM recast — Serbia NOT in EU ETS. CBAM replaces ETS pass-through assumption. NES carbon path: 0 → 2029, gradual ramp to 70 EUR/t by 2040.
Step 4: Structural correction — −13% 2026–2027 tapering to 0% by 2038.
Step 2: Coal correction — Tier 1A overestimated 2024 ARA by 21% (real). Sensitivity: 0.32 EUR/MWh power per USD/t. Tapers toward Tier 1A long-run.
Step 3: ETS/CBAM recast — Serbia NOT in EU ETS. CBAM replaces ETS pass-through assumption. NES carbon path: 0 → 2029, gradual ramp to 70 EUR/t by 2040.
Step 4: Structural correction — −13% 2026–2027 tapering to 0% by 2038.
Scenario Ranges
Central — Base case: post-crisis normalisation, moderate RE ramp, CBAM drag, NES ETS carbon path.
Low (−35%) — Aggressive RE deployment, weak demand, low gas/coal, early ETS alignment, faster CBAM RE substitution.
High (+40%) — Slow energy transition, tight Balkan capacity, high gas, delayed coal phase-out.
Low (−35%) — Aggressive RE deployment, weak demand, low gas/coal, early ETS alignment, faster CBAM RE substitution.
High (+40%) — Slow energy transition, tight Balkan capacity, high gas, delayed coal phase-out.
CBAM & Carbon Path
EU ETS price assumed: 68 EUR/t (2026) → 80 (2030) → 105 (2035) → 120 (2040) → 110 (2050) → 90 (2060).
Serbia grid emission factor: 0.78 tCO₂/MWh (2026) declining to 0.65 (2030) → 0.50 (2035) → 0.35 (2040) → 0.05 (2060) as coal phased out.
CBAM domestic drag: −3 to −5 EUR/MWh (2026–2030), tapering to zero by 2038.
Serbia grid emission factor: 0.78 tCO₂/MWh (2026) declining to 0.65 (2030) → 0.50 (2035) → 0.35 (2040) → 0.05 (2060) as coal phased out.
CBAM domestic drag: −3 to −5 EUR/MWh (2026–2030), tapering to zero by 2038.
Hydro Capture Rate
Plant-specific monthly generation profile (% of annual) applied to post-crisis seasonal price index (2023–2025 average).
Forward capture multiplier: 0.9728 (−2.7% vs baseload), derived from post-crisis seasonal structure.
Range: 88–103% historically. CBAM GOC premium: zero-carbon hydro can export to EU without CBAM cost → additional 40–53 EUR/MWh premium on EU-facing PPA structures.
Forward capture multiplier: 0.9728 (−2.7% vs baseload), derived from post-crisis seasonal structure.
Range: 88–103% historically. CBAM GOC premium: zero-carbon hydro can export to EU without CBAM cost → additional 40–53 EUR/MWh premium on EU-facing PPA structures.
Disclaimer
This analysis is produced by HowerValuations for internal project valuation purposes. All forecasts are based on publicly available data and third-party research. This is not investment advice. Forecasts involve material uncertainty and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Market conditions can differ materially from projections.
HU–RS Price Spread Analysis
BZN|HU vs BZN|RS day-ahead prices · ENTSO-E hourly data 2024–2026 YTD
Monthly RS vs HU Prices + Spread (EUR/MWh)
HU–RS Bilateral Flow Reversal (GWh/year)
| Month | RS (EUR/MWh) | HU (EUR/MWh) | Spread HU−RS | Signal |
|---|
Serbia Cross-Border Physical Flows
Net physical flows to/from all neighbours · ENTSO-E 2024–2026 YTD
Net Flow per Neighbour by Year (GWh · positive = RS exports)
RS Overall Net Balance (GWh · negative = net exporter)
| Neighbour | 2024 Net | 2025 Net | 2026 Net (YTD) | Trend |
|---|
Scenario Analysis: RE + CBAM + Carbon Pricing
3 integrated scenarios — all parameters affect the price forecast · incorporates Athens CSEE panel insights (Mar 2026)
KEY INSIGHTS — Montel CSEE Energy Day, Athens (March 2026)
Transit ambiguity
EC says transit excluded from CBAM but customs guidance lacking — compliance risk falls on importers/traders, creating short-term spread opportunities.
EC says transit excluded from CBAM but customs guidance lacking — compliance risk falls on importers/traders, creating short-term spread opportunities.
RE volatility risk
Rising solar/wind/hydro may increase curtailment. Without balancing signals, markets face more zero/negative price hours — already visible in Feb 2026 RS prices.
Rising solar/wind/hydro may increase curtailment. Without balancing signals, markets face more zero/negative price hours — already visible in Feb 2026 RS prices.
Hourly PPA gap
CBAM favours hourly-matched physical PPAs but rare in WB markets. CBAM-compliant structures still being developed — early movers get premium.
CBAM favours hourly-matched physical PPAs but rare in WB markets. CBAM-compliant structures still being developed — early movers get premium.
SCENARIO:
Day-Ahead Price Forecast by Scenario (EUR/MWh nominal)
Price Delta vs NES Central Forecast (EUR/MWh adjustment per scenario)
RE Installed Capacity by Scenario (MW)
CBAM Near-Term Impact 2026–2030 (EUR/MWh) by Scenario
* Grid EF: 0.78 tCO₂/MWh · RE with GOC = 0 EUR/MWh · Transit rule risk: HIGH 2026–2027
Scenario Parameter Comparison
Solar Capture Rate
10 MW solar plant as example · BZN|RS 15-min prices · Jul 2025 – Mar 2026 · Cannibalisation analysis
Jan 2026 Capture Rate
93.5%
110.4 vs 118.0 EUR/MWh · winter normal
Feb 2026 Capture Rate
69.6%
47.8 vs 68.7 EUR/MWh · market crash
Mar 2026 Capture Rate
42.6%
38.2 vs 89.6 EUR/MWh · strong cannibalisation
⚠ SOLAR CANNIBALISATION — March 2026
During peak solar hours (9h–13h), BZN|RS day-ahead prices collapsed to 15–23 EUR/MWh while the daily average was 90 EUR/MWh. Evening/morning hours traded at 150–175 EUR/MWh. This is direct evidence of solar merit-order depression — as Serbia adds more RE capacity, this effect will intensify. Example captured only 38.2 EUR/MWh on average against a 89.6 EUR/MWh market average.
Hourly Profile — Solar Production vs Price (select month)
Monthly Production & Capacity Factor (Jul 2025 – Mar 2026)
Estimated Annual Capture Rate Profile by Month (Example)
| Month | Production (MWh) | Market Avg (€/MWh) | Solar-Hour Avg (€/MWh) | Capture Price (€/MWh) | Capture Rate | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 554 | 118.0 | 123.9 | 110.4 | 93.5% | Low production, no cannibalisation |
| Feb 2026 | 885 | 68.7 | 64.2 | 47.8 | 69.6% | Market price crash, solar hours depressed |
| Mar 2026 | 877 | 89.6 | 58.6 | 38.2 | 42.6% | Strong cannibalisation — midday 15–23 €/MWh |
HUDEX Futures — Liquidity Collapse & Forward Curve
HU power exchange · futures volume, pricing signals, and impact on Serbian price forecast
2025 Total Volume
1.4 TWh
vs 9.0 TWh in 2023 · –84% collapse
Members at Year-End 2025
0
Exchange effectively defunct
YR-26 Futures Price
105.9
EUR/MWh avg 2025 · +18.3 vs 2024
Backwardation
YR-26 > 27 > 28
106 → 94 → 84 EUR/MWh
FORECAST IMPLICATION — HUDEX Signal vs NES Forecast
Near-term calibration
HUDEX YR-26 at 105.9 EUR/MWh (traded in 2025) vs our NES Central 91.6. 2026 YTD actuals running at 94 EUR/MWh. Revised NES estimate for 2026: ~98 EUR/MWh, acknowledging HUDEX signal offset by actual depressed Feb-Mar.
HUDEX YR-26 at 105.9 EUR/MWh (traded in 2025) vs our NES Central 91.6. 2026 YTD actuals running at 94 EUR/MWh. Revised NES estimate for 2026: ~98 EUR/MWh, acknowledging HUDEX signal offset by actual depressed Feb-Mar.
Long-term backwardation confirms RE compression
HUDEX curve: 106 → 94 → 84 EUR/MWh (2026→2027→2028) directly validates our scenario analysis showing RE-driven price decline in the Accelerated scenario, and moderate decline in Central scenario.
HUDEX curve: 106 → 94 → 84 EUR/MWh (2026→2027→2028) directly validates our scenario analysis showing RE-driven price decline in the Accelerated scenario, and moderate decline in Central scenario.
HUDEX Volume Collapse 2023–2025 (TWh)
Forward Curve: HUDEX Futures Price by Delivery Year (EUR/MWh)
HUDEX Signal vs NES Forecast Comparison (EUR/MWh)
| Delivery Year | HUDEX Avg Price 2024 | HUDEX Avg Price 2025 | Change | NES Central | NES Revised | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 87.59 | 105.90 | +18.31 | 91.6 | 98.0 | Actual YTD 94; HUDEX → revised up |
| 2027 | 78.33 | 93.56 | +15.23 | 96.0 | 94.5 | HUDEX aligns with RE suppression |
| 2028 | — | 84.44 | — | 98.0 | 86.0 | HUDEX significantly below NES central |